In-Running Trading £88 Free Bet Using Statistics

Yesterday’s case study showed you how to secure a profit without picking a winner (click here to see it). Today’s example is different as we show you how to generate a healthy free bet with the use of

It’s a simple strategy that you can use every day.

The Method: An In-Running Trading Advantage

To get an advantage over the market we started by filtering the days racing data with the %Rise and Exclude Lost filters.

The reason we did this is simple. We wanted to find a horse that routinely sees a significant price rise in running, that then goes on to win the race. In layman’s terms, we’re looking for a horse that runs like a donkey but actually comes up with the goods!

GLOBAL HUMOR was the selection that stood out to us. See the data below!

There were others, although this horse looked particularly reliable in running style. The next step would be to back the horse in-running at a higher price and simultaneously lay the same bet back to the market at a more reasonable price. To ordinary onlookers it would appear that GLOBAL HUMOR‘s chances were low, running uncomfortably, providing a bigger price than its actual chances. This is what we aimed to exploit.

Around the starting time Global Humor was trading at 6.2 on the exchange (see below).

Click the image to enlarge.

The race jumped off and as expected, GLOBAL HUMOR looked awkward in-running. It was a relatively short race so we placed a back bet in the market 20 seconds or so into the race.

Our back bet was matched about 30-40 seconds into the race at a price of 14.0, more than double it’s starting price. As soon as the back bet was matched, the counter-bets (lays) were placed into the market. All of this was happening in-play. See the green in-play tick in the following image!

It took seconds for the lay bet to be matched at 9.6 as the in-play prices bounced around. Our total exposure or risk was £20 for about 10-20 seconds, no more.

The good thing being, we now had a £88 free bet on GLOBAL HUMOR, the second favourite who had a habit of coming from the rear.

See below:

This left us in a great position as we then had the opportunity to cash-out and lock in a profit or let the free bet run. In this instance, we decided to let it run as GLOBAL HUMOR was going well. Unfortunately, it didn’t come off on this occasion, although it didn’t cost us anything either with the loss exposure covered.

It was a low-risk play from us here as our horse actually traded lower than its starting price after our bets were matched. We really did think this £88 free bet was coming in at one point!

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